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The direst possible consequences of the climate crisis for the UK have been outlined by scientists, including a scorching 4C increase in average temperatures to a 2-metre increase in ocean levels. Another scenario predicts a plunge of 6C in temperatures following the shutdown of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would profoundly upset agriculture and power requirements.

Possible Events, Not Predictions

These impacts, certain ones are associated with climate tipping points, are considered as improbable but possible. The scientists explained that these models addressed a shortfall in planning that had left the UK unprepared for catastrophic possibilities.

"The severe weather events we have mapped should not be seen as certainties, but they are plausible," commented the lead researcher who oversaw the analysis. "The nation has been planning without the frameworks to plan for catastrophic outcomes. We've now given policymakers what they need to prepare for future conditions they pray never occur, but dare not dismiss."

A Range of Extreme Weather Possibilities

Another collection of worst-case scenarios details the possible scale of extreme weather between now and the end of the century. These suggest that thermometer readings could skyrocket in particular seasons by up to 6C above average, while precipitation could be 300% of standard measurements.

The likelihood of the catastrophic events occurring remains uncertain due to unknown factors about what steps will be implemented to address climate change and how the Earth's systems will behave. This analysis was compared to national security risk assessments or stress tests for the banking sector.

Major Possibility Elements

• 4C Temperature Rise: Global temperatures rising well above 4C by 2100 could occur if emissions cuts breaks down or if strong feedback loops such as the Amazon basin becoming a net carbon source emit its huge repository of carbon. This would cause extreme and prolonged heatwaves and dry spells affecting the UK in summer.
• Ocean Circulation Failure: A critical sea current, the North Atlantic current, is weakening and becoming unstable due to climate change. A full shutdown starting around 2030 would lead to a 6C cooling in the UK. "Crop production would struggle enormously and freshwater availability would be drastically changed," said the lead researcher.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A increase of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if polar ice in the Arctic and Antarctic collapse rapidly, inundating seaside communities. Differing from the other scenarios, this possibility is already known by infrastructure experts.
• Clean Air Warming: Temperatures could also be pushed higher by about 0.75C if airborne particulates is rapidly cleaned up. This paradoxical outcome occurs because pollution particles from fossil fuel combustion scatter solar radiation from warming the ground.

Preparing for the Worst

These dire projections could be used to inform the building of critical national infrastructure, for example housing developments, power generation facilities and water management networks. Knowledge about these climate risks could also accelerate the transition to cut carbon pollution.

The research developed the worst-case scenarios using a combination of past data and records, computer simulations and scientific theory. These outcomes omit potential global problems such as the agricultural collapse and increased conflict.

The project was initiated as part of a official risk assessment framework. Independent analyses have warned that insufficient focus was being paid to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

The government's climate advisors has recommended that the UK needs to "prepare for two degrees of warming" and evaluate the threats for 4C. Past policy documents have been criticised as being "inadequate" by some observers.

An official statement noted: "Climate change is at the core of our national priorities, both preparing for impacts and transitioning to a low-carbon economy. It is crucial that the UK is prepared for the impacts."